The cepr euro area business cycle dating committee has been conceived to operate in a manner similar to the nber business cycle dating committee, its deliberations and timing of announcements are independent.
Committees procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways.
These differences explain why some of the cepr criteria for dating business cycles differ from those used by the nber:Unlike nber, the cepr committee dates episodes in terms of quarters rather than months.
The nber business cycle dating committee
For more information, see the latest announcement from the nber's business cycle dating committee, dated 9/20/10.
: the committee meets when it feels that data developments warrant examining whether there has been a turnaround in economic activity.
Related press releases:Prior to 1979, there were no formal announcements of business cycle turning points.
Nbers business cycle dating committee dated 920
Nber does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real gdp.
Note that since october 2012 the committee has dropped its requirement that peaks or troughs mark turning points in economic activity in most countries of the euro area.
It is thus possible that the euro area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not, and that the business cycle dates differ for the euro-area and for individual countries.
Nber business cycle dating committee members
Determining the chronology of the euro area business cycle, the cepr committee adopted a definition of a recession similar to that used by the national bureau of economic research (nber), which has for many years dated the us business cycle.
: the committee wants to ensure that its characterization of euro-area economic activity (which is its sole objective) is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the euro-area.
The rationale for this change is that the committee feels that the decision not to date is as informative as a decision to date.
What is the business cycle dating committee
As an example, the committee has identified the period from the first quarter in 1980 to the third quarter in 1982 as a recession, despite the fact that real gdp was growing in some quarters during that episode and that real gdp was higher at the end of the recession than at the beginning.
, the sole objective of the committee is to date recessions for the euro area as a whole.
Since october 2013, the committee releases its findings after each meeting whether or not it has decided to date a trough or a peak.
A detailed analysis of heterogeneity in individual countries' business cycles is included in the committee's releases since its creation.
Of the recessions identified by the committees procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real gdp, but declining real gdp is not the only indicator used.
Cepr committee views real gdp (euro area aggregate, as well as national) as the main measure of macroeconomic activity, but it also looks at additional macroeconomic variables, for several reasons.
Cycle Expansion and contraction dates for the United States EconomyBusiness cycle dating committee the cepr and nber approaches.
The committee had to adapt the nber definition, however, to reflect specific features of the euro area.
Adopting a dating criterion that refers solely to aggregate euro-area economic activity achieves this objective most transparently.